Certainty
Either an occupied state of mind based upon a threshold of reason, or a measure of our emotional commitment to an idea which has little to do with evidence or reason. Constantly at odds with a probabilistic understanding of the world, which should immediately warn us of its dangers.
Many argue that certainty is reached after we have accumulated a sufficient amount of evidence in support of a claim, but what does sufficient mean? After all, we all have different thresholds for when we decide we have become certain of a claim or view. No generalized models of certainty exist. It is a conscious choice we make based on how strongly we feel about the quality of the evidence on offer. Some of us will be satisfied with little or no evidence to feel certain about something. Others cannot be convinced of anything, even if you provide a large body of coherent and compelling evidence; they are true skeptics.
If an occupied state of mind based upon reason is more to our liking, a model that is reliably predictive must be introduced to qualify our views. Clear criteria must be established to determine if our threshold has been met, but even then, these are highly subject to our preconceptions about appropriate standards of measure. In the absence of perfect information, how much information is enough to sway us? Regardless, we require a model of some sort to keep us honest about when we are falling victim to our own shortcomings. Without a model that generates accurate predictions, there is only emotional commitment.
Uncertainty is not for the faint of heart. Fortunately, there is a mechanism to mediate the differences in our goal posts: a dedicated and lifelong commitment to pursuing TRUTH that we cooperate in discovering together.
Posted: 30 Dec 2022
